A simulation-based supply chain risk analysis framework

Iris Heckmann, Stefan Nickel
27th European Conference on Operational Research
The literature on supply chain risk analysis is mostly of anecdotal or case-based nature (Chopra & Sodhi 2004, Norrman & Jansson 2004) and only few authors present empirical research (Wagner and Bode 2006). Quantitative, systematic and reliable analyses are scarce. Mathematical optimization approaches focus on a small number of variables and, therefore, are less suitable to model numerous interacting characteristics, which prevail in nowadays supply chain systems. Instead, simulation is more appropriate as a method to model and analyze complex systems. In this work we present a new simulation-based approach for the analysis of supply chain risk. The main goal of the presented simulation model is to provide the user with valid and credible implications on the dynamics that drive the underlying supply chain and that potentially make supply chain risk effective when disturbances occur. For the sake of conceptual and methodological consistency the risk analysis approach models and respects the defining entities of supply chain risk (Heckmann et al. 2015). The simulation is built around an operational planning system and provides the decision maker the possibility to establish a continuous improvement process: Lessons learned from the risk analysis can be adopted for risk-reducing measures in the operational system. In order to demonstrate the functionality of the framework, we elaborate and present a case study.
Logistik und Supply-Chain-Optimierung
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